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Ti’s that time of the year again, the first halfhearted snow is falling in London, and the shops are still empty, trying to attract custom with all sorts of deals. The unseasonal hot weather has been blamed and winter clothes are selling at a discount. No proper sales on yet, it’s a tug of war, see who lasts longer, the consumer or the retailers. Seems like most shopping has been done online and red vans with men rushing around with parcels stamped with Amazon all over them were common where I live.
Of course, the late shoppers may have to hit the shopping malls and high streets, worried their Christmas presents won’t arrive on time. So, we may see a last minute rush on retail, but overall not looking great. Investors like to buy equities in the run up to Christmas, expecting the traditional Santa Claus rally, of course this may not happen, and I don’t really care, perhaps a spiritual Christmas as opposed to ‘let’s spend all our available credit‘ on a load of bollocks is not a bad thing.
Personally, I am not buying into any rally, with more and more bull coming out of the ECB and the Eurocrats, mud slinging and France slagging the UK etc. All I trust is small scalps. Scalping the DAX, scalping the Euro and even the CAC now. Some of these trades become swings, but the majority are for a few small pips at a time. Do it enough times, mercilessly cutting any trade that is not immediately in profit, and it all adds up. For currency scalps I am using LMAX as the spreads and commissions are very low. For indices I use various spread betting firms, and at the moment Worldspreads are offering a £300 cashback and zero spread for bigger accounts.
The belief in the Santa Claus rally is like all beliefs, false. One belief is no better than another, you either observe and know or you act like a sleep walker, and the markets are not kind to sleep walkers, so wake up, observe and don’t fear reality 
All in all, I wish you all a happy Christmas, I won’t be trading much next week as I am busy setting up some property deals and the pre Christmas market is often thin and treacherous. Whatever you do trade lightly and stay focused.
Best,
Mark
Related articles
- Any Day Now, Santa Claus (blogs.wsj.com)
- A Santa Claus Rally, For Real? (forbes.com)
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Good read. Traders need to be on their Ps and Qs. Especially, because the markets are can be kind of touch and go around this time. That’s is why i’m being extra cautious about putting any capital behind a trade. Like you said trade lightly!
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