Forex and Indices View

Equity markets rallied yesterday after lower than expected retail sales and an aweful Empire State Manufacturing Index reading. We saw a small spike to the downside but the markets then continued their bullish run, the Dow rose over 100 points and the USD continued to weaken. The GBP rose around 170 pips since the figures came out. This morning’s decent CPI figures out of the UK boosted the GBP somewhat, but then saw a sharp fall to well below the pre news price. The GBP has been in an uptrend since October 13th where it started it’s reversal. On the daily chart the Pound has been rising for 4 days quite solidly, pretty much following Risk Aversion trades. No doubt some form of correction is due, question is, will it be today? Later on we have US PPI, followed by Net Long Term TIC flows and then Industrial Production. IP is the one to look at, mind you all bad manufacturing figures have been not only faded but bought into ferociously, so we’ll see. The correlation between risk and the USD  will probably continue today, so watch the Dow and USD as they move in tandem or decide to split paths, often the USD is the leader but not always, so full focus is required. May be good idea to watch the T-notes as well.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

On the daily charts Cable has nade a new high and is starting to retrace from there, 1.70 area was touched on August 5 and dropped to 1.57 area before starting this current up trend. Daily MACD is not keeping up with price and the FX5_divergence indicator is showing a divergence, Stochastics may also be indicating a slowing down and possible reversal. R1 is at 1.6909 which is where I would be looking for a short with a Stop and Reverse, but it looks pretty remote right now. The Pivot point is at 1.6790 which is where the Pound is hovering at the moment, yesterdays Pivot point held and we went long for about 80 pips from there. The Pivot point system I use is here ==> Pivots

On Thursday we have UK Retail sales and that number usually has a strong impact on GBP/USD, so I won’t be taking any long term positions prior.

I am trading short term at the moment until a clearer picture emerges, last trade was indicated by Forex Rebellion Trading system on the 30 minute chart, and made a safe 30 pips, however as it went below the Pivot Point and started kicking back I closed it. Good system though, seems to catch the 1h and 4h nicely.

Have a good trading day

Cheers,

Mark Meir

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